Primary-market flow, source rights, and revision rules
ETF flow methodology
The desk measures regulated wrappers without turning a convenient estimate into a false fact. Product class, source rights, session dates, missing observations, and corporate actions all sit upstream of the number.
What does an ETF inflow actually mean?
It means net primary-market share creation under the stated method. Since U.S. crypto ETPs can create and redeem in kind, an inflow does notprove that an issuer bought the same dollar amount of cryptocurrency for cash that day. It also says nothing by itself about tomorrow's price.
Seven-stage evidence chain
From listing to publishable reading
Each stage can stop publication. A ticker without legal identity, a source without rights, or a flow without adjacent observations remains discovery evidence, not a live market reading.
Discover and identify
A listing directory can reveal a candidate, but cannot prove legal identity, current trading status, exposure, or daily flow on its own. Bathymark verifies legal identity through an approved regulator source such as CIK, series, class, ISIN, or CVM fund ID. Listing discovery and mandate evidence remain separate states.
Classify the wrapper
Direct spot, staked spot, multi-asset, futures, leveraged or inverse, income, defined-outcome, and crypto-equity products remain separate. The desk does not combine unlike exposures into one demand number.
Gate the source
Every adapter records a rights status and permitted data classes. A runtime source must be approved for automated use and for the exact field being captured. Pending and restricted sources remain visible as coverage constraints but cannot populate live figures.
Capture an observation
Each observation carries a market session date, publication or effective time, Bathymark retrieval time, revision number, payload fingerprint, source receipt, and quality issues. Missing fields stay null.
Derive or report flow
Regulator-reported subscriptions minus redemptions take priority and must reconcile with any reported net-flow field. Otherwise the desk may use the shares-outstanding method only when the earlier observation is the exact prior exchange session and NAV, currency, quality, and corporate-action checks pass.
Aggregate with coverage
Asset totals disclose the expected products, available products, missing products, product coverage, and prior-AUM coverage only when every denominator product has net assets from its exact prior market session. The basis date is shown with the percentage. A partial aggregate cannot be described as the whole market.
Revise without erasing
A corrected observation supersedes the earlier record and increments its revision. Conflicts are preserved as source history rather than silently overwritten. Public pages use the latest valid revision and keep the receipt trail.
Flow formula
Reported first, derived second
Brazil's CVM daily fund report includes subscriptions and redemptions paid. Bathymark can use those fields only after an exact ETF CNPJ mapping and approved session-matched FX are configured. Where an approved source supplies daily shares outstanding and NAV instead, the shares-delta method runs only across exact consecutive exchange sessions.
estimated net flow = (split-adjusted shares today - split-adjusted shares prior session) × today's NAV
Local-currency flow is converted to U.S. dollars only when a matching, identified FX observation is available. The formula version, inputs, result status, confidence, and receipt IDs stay with the result.
Unavailable is a valid result.
The desk withholds flow when any required piece is unresolved.
Current or previous observation is missing.
The previous row is not the expected prior exchange session.
Shares outstanding or NAV is missing.
Reported arithmetic does not reconcile inside the documented tolerance.
Currencies do not match and no approved FX rate exists.
A split, seed creation, conversion, distribution, merger, or closure is unresolved.
The source is pending, restricted, stale, or outside its approved data class.
Method reference: the shares-delta approach is consistent with the public Morningstar estimated net cash-flow methodology. U.S. in-kind treatment follows the SEC's July 2025 order. Information, not financial advice. Morningstar method · SEC in-kind order
Publication gates
What blocks a public aggregate
A total is only as credible as its missing products. The UI carries coverage beside the figure and never turns missing observations into zero.
Identity
Verified legal identity, dated listing discovery, structure, and exact mandate evidence are recorded as separate claims.
Source rights
Approved automation plus explicit permission for the captured data class.
Arithmetic
Net assets should reconcile to shares multiplied by NAV within a documented tolerance.
Coverage
Expected, available, included, and missing products are recorded for every asset total.
Freshness
Session date, source publication time, retrieval time, page update, and revision remain distinct.
Language
Primary-market creation is never presented as a cash purchase, price prediction, or recommendation.
Source rights register
Public does not always mean reusable
Restricted and pending sources are shown because they explain coverage gaps. They are not runtime inputs. A written permission can be recorded later as a separate approved source entry.
HKEX terms do not clear automated commercial extraction or redistribution for this runtime.
Plain answers
ETF flow questions
Short definitions for readers and answer engines, with the same limits as the underlying desk.
How does Bathymark estimate daily crypto ETF flow?
When a regulator does not report subscriptions and redemptions directly, Bathymark estimates primary-market net flow as the split-adjusted change in shares outstanding multiplied by the current session NAV. Missing shares or NAV make the flow unavailable, not zero.
Is a change in ETF assets under management the same as fund flow?
No. Assets under management can change because the underlying asset price moved. Trading volume is also not flow because it usually reflects secondary-market activity. Bathymark uses reported subscriptions and redemptions or a shares-outstanding method.
Does an ETF inflow prove that an issuer bought cryptocurrency for cash that day?
No. In-kind creations transfer an eligible basket through the primary market. A positive flow means net share creation under the stated method, not proof that the issuer purchased coins for cash during that session.
Why are some crypto ETF flows unavailable?
Public visibility does not grant commercial automation rights, and not every jurisdiction publishes daily subscriptions or shares outstanding as open data. Bathymark withholds values when source rights, required fields, dates, or corporate actions are unresolved.
Bathymark reads fund flow as an observable primary-market change. It does not provide investment advice, price targets, or instructions to buy or sell any fund or crypto asset.