timestamped forecast record

The Log

Bathymark's public record of market calls, timestamps, source numbers, resolution rules, hits, and misses. A call matters only if the reader can check it later.

Open dataSource trailsNo paid rankingsUnknowns stay unknown

What this helps you decide

Use The Log to check whether Bathymark records calls before they can resolve, names the source basis, keeps misses visible, and defines the condition that would prove a reading wrong.

crypto data methodology source-reviewed research claims source correction policy live crypto liquidity index

What the ledger is becoming

A durable record for calls, sources, classifications, and corrections.

The Log started with market calls. The enterprise-grade record also tracks source, classification, methodology, and report changes.

Market callTimestamp, basis, falsifier, result

The current public resolution record.

Source status changeFresh, attached, stale, broken

A source trail should show when the evidence changes.

Product classificationBacking, redemption, liquidity, wrapper state

A product read should not change silently.

Peg stress eventSupply, drift, source, recovery state

Stablecoin stress needs context over time.

Report correctionOriginal value, corrected value, source

Paid and public reports follow the same correction rule.

Methodology updateVersion, date, reason, affected pages

The method is part of the product.

Future log event fields

These fields are the durable trust record Bathymark will build around product intelligence.

Event type	Public fields	Commercial use case
Source status change	Asset, old state, new state, source URL, reviewed date	Alerts and audit trail
Redemption access change	Asset, old label, new label, source, limit text	Listing, wallet, compliance review
Peg stress event	Asset, drift, supply affected, source, recovery condition	Stablecoin stress monitoring
Report correction	Report, section, original state, corrected state, methodology impact	Institutional report governance
API field change	Field, old schema, new schema, date, migration note	Data product integration

n/ahit rate

0resolved

31open

31recorded days

Ledger storage: Vercel Blob ledger, last written Aug 11, 2026.

Current measureResolution accuracy only0 resolved calls in the public record

The hit rate counts resolved calls as hits or misses. It does not show whether a stated probability was well calibrated, because calls do not yet record one.

Chart readiness

Probability calibration is not available yet.

A predicted-versus-observed chart would imply evidence the ledger does not contain. Before that chart can exist, every forecast needs these fields recorded before resolution:

Predicted probability: A numeric probability fixed when the call is published.
Forecast timestamp: An immutable publication time and forecast horizon.
Resolution outcome: A defined event, resolution time, and observed result.
Calibration cohort: Enough comparable resolved forecasts for declared probability bins.

Until those fields exist, the honest record is the summary, history, and call ledger below.

Recorded Waterline

31 stored

snapshot captured Aug 11, 202644Slack water$207.31M net nominal depthLeverage health: 2 rising open-interest rows against 0 falling
snapshot captured Aug 10, 202660Flood tide$1.49B net nominal depthNominal depth: $1.49B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease
snapshot captured Aug 9, 202669Flood tide$3.67B net nominal depthNominal depth: $3.67B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease
snapshot captured Aug 8, 202658Slack water$2.03B net nominal depthNominal depth: $2.03B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease
snapshot captured Aug 7, 202639Ebb tide-$372.63M net nominal depthNominal depth: $372.63M more nominal USD depth decrease than increase
snapshot captured Aug 6, 202650Slack water$748.6M net nominal depthLeverage health: 1 rising open-interest row against 0 falling
snapshot captured Aug 5, 202652Slack water$1.48B net nominal depthNominal depth: $1.48B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease
snapshot captured Aug 4, 202648Slack water-$19.46M net nominal depthCash layer: 4 stablecoins drifting from peg
snapshot captured Aug 3, 202647Slack water-$1.34B net nominal depthLeverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling
snapshot captured Aug 2, 202649Slack water-$558.22M net nominal depthLeverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling
snapshot captured Aug 1, 202639Ebb tide-$3.31B net nominal depthNominal depth: $3.31B more nominal USD depth decrease than increase
snapshot captured Jul 31, 202660Flood tide$1.14B net nominal depthLeverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling

The stored calls

Aug 11, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 44 (slack water), net nominal depth change $207.31M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 2 rising open-interest rows against 0 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 10, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 60 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $1.49B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $1.49B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 9, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 69 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $3.67B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $3.67B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 8, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 58 (slack water), net nominal depth change $2.03B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $2.03B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 7, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 39 (ebb tide), net nominal depth change -$372.63M across 24 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $372.63M more nominal USD depth decrease than increase.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 6, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 50 (slack water), net nominal depth change $748.6M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 1 rising open-interest row against 0 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 5, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 52 (slack water), net nominal depth change $1.48B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $1.48B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 4, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 48 (slack water), net nominal depth change -$19.46M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Cash layer: 4 stablecoins drifting from peg.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 3, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 47 (slack water), net nominal depth change -$1.34B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 2, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 49 (slack water), net nominal depth change -$558.22M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Aug 1, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 39 (ebb tide), net nominal depth change -$3.31B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $3.31B more nominal USD depth decrease than increase.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 31, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 60 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $1.14B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 30, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 51 (slack water), net nominal depth change -$54.37M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 1 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 29, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 58 (slack water), net nominal depth change $997.06M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 0 rising open-interest rows against 2 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 28, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 24 (ebb tide), net nominal depth change -$5.8B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $5.8B more nominal USD depth decrease than increase.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 27, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 62 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $4.76B across 24 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $4.76B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 26, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 54 (slack water), net nominal depth change $2.11B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $2.11B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 25, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 40 (slack water), net nominal depth change -$311.57M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 2 rising open-interest rows against 0 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 24, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 39 (ebb tide), net nominal depth change -$1.19B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 2 rising open-interest rows against 0 falling.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 23, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 49 (slack water), net nominal depth change $1.6B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $1.6B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 22, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 56 (slack water), net nominal depth change $3.2B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $3.2B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 21, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 69 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $6.36B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $6.36B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 20, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 59 (slack water), net nominal depth change $1.58B across 26 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $1.58B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 19, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 75 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $4.59B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $4.59B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 18, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 59 (slack water), net nominal depth change $1.25B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $1.25B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 17, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 47 (slack water), net nominal depth change $899.5M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Cash layer: 4 stablecoins drifting from peg.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 16, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 66 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $8.04B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $8.04B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 15, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.
Basis
Waterline 65 (flood tide), net nominal depth change $8.33B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $8.33B more nominal USD depth increase than decrease.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 14, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 20 (ebb tide), net nominal depth change -$4.18B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $4.18B more nominal USD depth decrease than increase.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 12, 2026Open
The tide is going out: nominal USD depth is decreasing faster than it is increasing.
Basis
Waterline 32 (ebb tide), net nominal depth change -$2.04B across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Nominal depth: $2.04B more nominal USD depth decrease than increase.
Resolves when
The seven-day nominal depth balance turns positive and rising readings outnumber falling readings for seven daily snapshots.
Open stable receipt
Jul 11, 2026Open
The tide is coming in: capital is arriving faster than it drains.
Basis
Waterline 66 (flood tide), net flow $3.95B across 37 readings. Driver: Leverage: open interest is shifting against the venues in view.
Resolves when
Net flow turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising ones for a full week.
Open stable receipt

How the ledger works

A call is recorded with a timestamp before it can resolve. No backdating, ever.
Wrong calls stay in the record. The misses are the point as much as the hits.
The hit-rate counts only resolved calls, and always shows the sample size.
Every call names the number behind it and exactly what would prove it wrong.

A real record you can check beats a claimed one you cannot. Information, not financial advice. Methodology.

commercial use case

Need source-change history in your workflow?

Request Pro or enterprise access for source freshness alerts, product classification timelines, and exportable records.

Request Pro Access Enterprise Access

sounding open dataReading the waterlineLive sources are loading. Nothing is filled with placeholder market data.

Event type

Public fields

Commercial use case

Source status change

Asset, old state, new state, source URL, reviewed date

Alerts and audit trail

Redemption access change

Asset, old label, new label, source, limit text

Listing, wallet, compliance review

Peg stress event

Asset, drift, supply affected, source, recovery condition

Stablecoin stress monitoring

Report correction

Report, section, original state, corrected state, methodology impact

Institutional report governance

API field change

Field, old schema, new schema, date, migration note

Data product integration

Probability calibration is not available yet.

A predicted-versus-observed chart would imply evidence the ledger does not contain. Before that chart can exist, every forecast needs these fields recorded before resolution:

Predicted probability

A numeric probability fixed when the call is published.

Forecast timestamp

An immutable publication time and forecast horizon.

Resolution outcome

A defined event, resolution time, and observed result.

Calibration cohort

Enough comparable resolved forecasts for declared probability bins.

Until those fields exist, the honest record is the summary, history, and call ledger below.

The stored calls

Aug 11, 2026Open

The tide is coming in: nominal USD depth is increasing faster than it is decreasing.

Basis: Waterline 44 (slack water), net nominal depth change $207.31M across 27 readings. Token-price effects are not removed. Driver: Leverage health: 2 rising open-interest rows against 0 falling.
Resolves when: The seven-day nominal depth balance turns negative and falling readings outnumber rising readings for seven daily snapshots.