Fear & Greed
Sentiment sits at 29, fear. The mood, not the money.
The Almanac · Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Bitcoin is 57% of the ocean, still the deepest water. Price sits 49% from its all-time high. The Mayer Multiple reads 0.92×, in the cold value zone.
What this does not prove: market-cap, stablecoin USD market-value, and DeFi TVL observations are not a price-adjusted deposit ledger or a forecast. Information, not advice.
fearful waters·42 observed or date-computed instruments·8 of 8 required source lanes
What this page answers
The Almanac is Bathymark's daily crypto market reading. It puts liquidity, stablecoins, market cap, Bitcoin dominance, sentiment, network health, valuation models, and cycles on one open-data instrument wall.
What the sentiment source reports, kept separate from market depth.
Sentiment sits at 29, fear. The mood, not the money.
Polymarket traders put 25% odds on: "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?". Real-money participation can make the price informative, but it does not eliminate coordinated trading, thin-market distortion, selection bias, or manipulation risk.
The Bitcoin Wikipedia page drew 4.6K views on its latest day. This is a public-attention observation, not proof that newcomers are buying or that attention leads price.
The most-searched coins on CoinGecko right now: DAPPOS, Pump.fun, StonkBroker. A live read on where retail attention is pointing next.
Where the value sits and how deep the water runs.
All of crypto is worth $2.28T across 18.4K assets. The whole ocean, measured in dollars.
Bitcoin is 56.5% of all crypto value. A rise means its relative market-value share increased; it does not prove capital rotated into bitcoin.
$308.02B in circulating USD market value is reported across the visible stablecoin roster. DeFiLlama calculates each list row as token units multiplied by current USD price. This is not a token-unit total, reserve balance, or measure of immediately redeemable cash.
$75.4B in source-reported nominal USD TVL is attributed across 461 chains. It is a depth proxy with token-price effects, not measured deposits or executable market depth.
Bitcoin's market cap is 4.2× the visible stablecoin circulating USD market value. This is a scale comparison, not proof that the stablecoin value is available to buy Bitcoin.
Visible stablecoin circulating USD market value equals 13.5% of reported aggregate crypto market capitalisation. The ratio does not identify investor intent, reserves, or cash waiting to deploy.
Ethereum accounts for 55% of source-reported DeFi TVL, the largest single-chain share. A fall can reflect relative repricing, deposits, withdrawals, or source mapping, not necessarily capital spreading.
Money locked in DeFi is 3.3% of the whole market cap, a rough gauge of how much of crypto is actually put to work on-chain.
After subtracting visible stablecoin circulating USD market value from aggregate market capitalisation, Bitcoin equals 65.4% of the remainder. This does not prove capital rotated between Bitcoin and other assets.
Reported DEX turnover equals 8.3% of reported nominal DeFi TVL in this snapshot. Turnover is gross activity, not net flow or executable depth, and TVL retains token-price effects.
Lido's reported nominal TVL equals 23.6% of the cross-chain nominal TVL total used here. This is a concentration proxy with overlapping and price-sensitive denominators, not a claim about executable liquidity.
Tron's reported nominal TVL equals 6.4% of the cross-chain total in this snapshot. This does not identify how much is stablecoin settlement, remove token-price effects, or measure executable exit depth.
92% of visible circulating USD market value carries the source mechanism label fiat backed. The label is a classification, not proof of reserve quality or redemption access.
0.6% of visible circulating USD market value uses a non-USD reference such as euro, Brazilian real, or gold. Custom-variable reference instruments are not counted as a currency. This describes composition, not future currency adoption.
Across 245 assessed fixed USD-reference instruments, the circulating-USD-market-value-weighted mean distance is 11 basis points. Variable-price accumulating-NAV and custom-reference units are excluded, while fixed-price rebasing units remain eligible.
Crypto measured against itself, and against the oldest money there is.
Assets other than Bitcoin account for 43.5% of reported aggregate crypto market capitalisation. The share does not identify investor intent or capital transfers.
One ether is worth 0.0293 bitcoin. The ratio shows relative performance between ETH and BTC, not proof that capital rotated from one into the other.
One bitcoin buys 14.5 ounces of gold right now. Bitcoin calls itself digital gold; this is the live scoreboard of that century-long bet.
The dollar index proxy reads 99.8. A strong dollar is usually a headwind for risk assets like crypto, a weakening one a tailwind.
All of crypto ($2.28T) is 1.92% of annual world GDP ($118.35T). The whole asset class measured against everything humans make in a year.
How much borrowed conviction is riding on the market, and what it costs.
BTC perpetual funding is 0.0017% per window, about 2% annualized if the observed rate persisted. Positive funding means longs pay shorts under the venue's mechanism; it does not predict price direction.
$6.84B of BTC perpetual positions are open on a single venue. Rising open interest while price stalls is pressure building, not depth.
Deribit's DVOL index, the crypto VIX, reads 36. It is what options traders pay for protection, a forward read on expected turbulence.
$23.1B of open interest sits on on-chain perpetual venues, the decentralised slice of the leverage that drives liquidations.
The venue reports 1.66 long accounts for each short account in this cohort. Account count is not position size and does not predict which side will be liquidated.
The heartbeat, the security, and the energy underneath it all.
The Bitcoin network is computing 773 quintillion hashes a second. More hashing is more security, and more energy. The line is its real path over the last year.
Difficulty stands at 127.48T. It self-adjusts so blocks keep landing about every ten minutes, no matter how much hashing arrives.
Mining draws an estimated 19.3 GW, roughly 169 TWh a year, near the annual electricity use of Poland. Estimate assumes a ~25 J/TH fleet; the figure of record is Cambridge's CBECI.
A next-block Bitcoin transaction costs about 1 sat/vB right now. Low fees mean an empty mempool; spikes mean everyone wants in at once.
Difficulty is on track to change -1.2% at the next retarget, 1694 blocks out. Difficulty chasing hashrate is the network breathing.
78.9K unconfirmed transactions are queued, about 40 blocks of backlog. A full mempool means everyone wants in at once.
Network value to transactions: market cap is 254 times the dollar value settling on-chain daily. Roughly crypto's price-to-earnings. High means price has run ahead of usage.
The two largest pools mined 41% of last week's blocks, led by Foundry USA. Bitcoin's security assumes nobody gets too big, so this is the number to keep an eye on.
There are 166.96M unspent transaction outputs, the full set of spendable Bitcoin. It is the ledger's working memory, and it only ever grows.
The supply metronome and the distance from the last peak.
In about 688 days the block reward halves from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. The supply metronome the whole four-year cycle dances to.
Bitcoin sits 49.2% below its record of $126.1K. The distance from the peak is the cycle's clearest tide.
Old, blunt valuation models. Useful as weather, not as advice.
Price is 0.92× its 200-day average. Above 2.4 has marked froth; below 1.0 has marked the deep, cold value zone.
Miner revenue today is 0.75× its yearly average. Above ~3.4 has marked cycle tops; below 0.5 has marked capitulation bottoms. Approximate (revenue includes fees, not just issuance).
The instruments on the wall, in plain language.
The Almanac currently shows 42 market instruments from free, open sources (DeFiLlama, blockchain.com, CoinGecko, alternative.me, mempool.space) and transparent calculations. Astronomy and labelled folklore have been repositioned to After Dark. Everything here is information, never advice. See how we read the water.