Design
Synthetic control intended to construct a counterfactual Bitcoin without the issuance change.
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Cycles and regimes · causal
A 2025 preprint using synthetic control reports a positive 2024 estimate three months after the event, but no statistically robust causal estimate for the 2020 halving.
A 2025 preprint using synthetic control reports a positive 2024 estimate three months after the event, but no statistically robust causal estimate for the 2020 halving.
The study is a non-peer-reviewed preprint, its two event results differ, and the independent halving sample remains extremely small.
The preprint reports a positive 2024 estimate at three months and an inconclusive 2020 causal estimate.
Synthetic control intended to construct a counterfactual Bitcoin without the issuance change.
Actual and synthetic Bitcoin price paths around the 2020 and 2024 halvings.
The donor pool, fit window, anticipation, macro conditions, and concurrent market-structure changes are decisive.
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Vladislav Virtonen · arXiv · 2025
Preprint reviewed. No peer-reviewed version or independent replication is recorded.
Cycle Clock shows issuance timing only and makes no price-effect claim.
Reviewed 2026-07-13; next review 2026-09-13. The paper record is not a recommendation, forecast, or proof of current profitability. Information, not financial advice.