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⟁⊿⋔Returns, factors, and adoption · predictive
Does time-series momentum predict cryptocurrency returns?
Liu and Tsyvinski report a strong time-series momentum relationship and attention-based return predictability for Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum in their historical study.
Source reviewed
Liu and Tsyvinski report a strong time-series momentum relationship and attention-based return predictability for Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum in their historical study.
The result is present in the peer-reviewed source. Bathymark has not reproduced the portfolio construction or tested post-publication decay.
Literature record
Source reviewedWhat the reviewed source and linked counterevidence support.
Bathymark reproduction
Test outline readyThe source claim and minimum reality checks are specified. No Bathymark result has been computed.
Live validity
Not monitoredSignal Lab shows current market evidence, not a replication of this paper.
where the claim applies
Scope and horizon
Assets
Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum
Venues or data
Paper-specific market data aggregation
Geography
Global crypto markets
Sample
Historical samples ending before the 2021 journal publication
Horizon
Paper-specific weekly return horizons
source result
What the work reported
The source reports strong time-series momentum and attention-based return predictability.
structured numbers
This claim record depends on a reported relationship or method, not a single headline number. No summary metric is manufactured.
how the result was made
Method and implementation boundary
Design
Predictive regressions over lagged cryptocurrency returns and investor-attention proxies.
Measures
Cryptocurrency returns, lagged returns, and crypto-specific attention proxies.
Reality gap
The paper result is not yet translated into a fee, spread, slippage, funding, or capacity-aware Bathymark strategy test.
Assumptions
The source price histories and return construction are representative of the stated assets.
The tested lags were specified and interpreted without treating overlapping observations as independent cycles.
Limits
A predictive coefficient is not a guaranteed or directly executable return.
The journal result predates several major venue, custody, leverage, and market-structure changes.
Fees, spreads, taxes, borrow, funding, and market impact can remove an apparent edge.
Required reality checks
Rebuild the exact signal from point-in-time data.
Run walk-forward and post-publication tests across distinct venues and regimes.
Apply multiple-testing and realistic implementation-cost controls.
What this cannot mean
That momentum works for every token, venue, horizon, or market regime.
That recent positive returns are a buy instruction.
That Bathymark currently operates a validated momentum strategy.
source and version trail
The works behind this record
Bathymark stores curated bibliographic facts and its own paraphrase. It does not store the source abstract or full text. Open the original work to inspect the complete analysis.
A Bathymark momentum replication must preserve the tested parameter family and selection history.
append-only assessment memory
Status history
Source reviewedPrimary journal claim verified; Bathymark replication and live validity remain untested.
current Bathymark context
Related live evidence, not a replication
Signal Lab shows current market evidence, not a replication of this paper.
Reviewed 2026-07-13; next review 2026-10-13. The paper record is not a recommendation, forecast, or proof of current profitability. Information, not financial advice.