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⎈╲╱Stablecoins and monetary transmission · causal
Can stablecoin demand spill into local currencies and dollar funding markets?
A 2026 BIS working paper reports persistent stablecoin-versus-FX parity gaps and estimates spillovers from exogenous stablecoin demand into local exchange rates and dollar funding costs.
Working paper
A 2026 BIS working paper reports persistent stablecoin-versus-FX parity gaps and estimates spillovers from exogenous stablecoin demand into local exchange rates and dollar funding costs.
The result is current and source-verified, but it remains a working paper with a specialized exchange panel and instrumental-variable design.
Literature record
Working paperWhat the reviewed source and linked counterevidence support.
Bathymark reproduction
Not startedThe required exchange-by-fiat panel is outside Bathymark's current open-data coverage.
Live validity
Not monitoredCurrent premium and stablecoin pages provide adjacent evidence only.
where the claim applies
Scope and horizon
Assets
Four major U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins
Venues or data
64 exchanges
Geography
27 fiat currencies
Sample
2021 to 2025
Horizon
Dynamic responses after stablecoin flow shocks
source result
What the work reported
The paper estimates that a 1 percent exogenous net-inflow increase raises parity deviations by about 40 basis points and transmits into local currency and dollar-funding markets.
structured numbers
Stablecoins examined4 stablecoins
Fiat currencies examined27 currencies
Exchanges examined64 exchanges
Parity-deviation response40 basis points per 1 percent inflow shock
how the result was made
Method and implementation boundary
Design
Exchange-level parity-gap measurement plus an instrumental-variable model of stablecoin flow shocks.
Measures
Net stablecoin inflows, stablecoin-FX parity deviations, spot exchange rates, and covered-interest-parity deviations.
Reality gap
The study's parity gap is a cross-market measure, not an immediately executable consumer exchange quote.
Assumptions
The instrument isolates idiosyncratic stablecoin-demand shocks from common macro and crypto shocks.
Exchange, fiat, and stablecoin panels are comparable after the paper's controls.
Limits
This is not yet a peer-reviewed result.
The estimate is an average over selected currencies, stablecoins, venues, and dates.
Parity gaps can reflect banking access, fees, capital controls, latency, and counterparty risk.
Required reality checks
Keep each fiat currency, stablecoin, and venue visible in any replication.
Separate price gaps from executable transfer and funding costs.
Monitor revisions and independent replications.
What this cannot mean
That stablecoins replace the foreign-exchange market.
That every local-currency move is caused by crypto demand.
That a parity gap is a free arbitrage.
source and version trail
The works behind this record
Bathymark stores curated bibliographic facts and its own paraphrase. It does not store the source abstract or full text. Open the original work to inspect the complete analysis.
Both identify segmented markets and constrained intermediaries, but one concerns stablecoin-FX transmission and the other crypto exchange prices.
append-only assessment memory
Status history
Working paperMarch 2026 working-paper claims verified; peer review and independent replication remain absent.
current Bathymark context
Related live evidence, not a replication
Current premium and stablecoin pages provide adjacent evidence only.
Reviewed 2026-07-13; next review 2026-09-13. The paper record is not a recommendation, forecast, or proof of current profitability. Information, not financial advice.