Bathymark Analysis Standard
Is USDA's market reading being interpreted correctly?
The market price is 321 basis points below its normalized reference.
- State
- Reference stress observed
- Confidence
- moderateMarket price, reference method, circulating USD market value, and token-unit history are source-backed. Reserve quality and holder redemption access are not verified by this feed.
- Snapshot captured
Three strongest drivers
- Normalized reference drift-321 bps$0.9679 versus $1.0000 in USD quote terms.
- Circulating USD market value$84.17MThe list endpoint reports raw circulating token units multiplied by the current USD token price. This is already USD and is not token count.
- Seven-day token-unit changeWithheldThe token-unit history does not yet reconcile to the requested seven-day window.
Open the 30-second readChange, history, comparison, and implication
What changed
A seven-day token-unit change is withheld until the history reconciles to the requested window.
6 observations currently support this view.
Is it unusual
Token-unit unusualness is not assigned yet.
At least seven daily observations across six days are required before percentile, persistence, or volatility is assigned.
How it compares
USDA ranks #55 of 410 peers by current circulating USD market value.
Peer circulating USD market value is a size comparison. It does not compare token units, reserve quality, liquidity, or redemption rights.
Why it matters
Reference drift is a reason to investigate persistence, liquidity, and redemption access, not proof of insolvency.
This is market and product-risk context, not financial advice.
Open the evidence trailCounterevidence, invalidation, sources, and method
What argues against this reading
The live source does not expose reserve composition, bank balances, or legal enforceability.
A token trading near its reference does not show that every holder can use the issuer's primary redemption path.
The price and circulation feed provides retrieval timing, not an exchange-by-exchange market observation timestamp.
What would change the call
The stress call changes when absolute normalized drift is below 50 basis points in two consecutive validated snapshots.
Measured byAbsolute normalized reference drift in basis points, with a 50 basis-point threshold.
Next review
Exact sources
- DeFiLlama Stablecoins APIhttps://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoins?includePrices=trueSupports: Current circulating USD market value, market price, reference type, mechanism, and chain roster.Limit: The circulation field is current USD market value, not token count. It does not verify reserves, legal claims, or universal redemption access.
- DeFiLlama peggedassets-server implementationhttps://github.com/DefiLlama/peggedassets-server/blob/master/api2/cron-task/getStableCoins.tsSupports: The list response's circulating field is built as raw circulating token units multiplied by current USD price for every peg type.Limit: The implementation explains list valuation. It does not turn market value into token count, reserves, or redemption capacity.
- DeFiLlama Stablecoin Supply History APIhttps://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/405Source observation: Supports: Source-reported circulating token-unit history.Limit: History token units are not interchangeable with the list endpoint's current USD market value. The series does not show reserve composition or holder redemption access.
Formula
reference drift bps = (market price USD - reference target USD) / reference target USD * 10,000Historical change uses only token-unit history endpoints. The list endpoint's current USD market value stays separate. The price formula is used only when the taxonomy declares a fixed reference.
Open formula noteSnapshot receipt
- Snapshot captured
- Ingested
- Method version
- stablecoin-reference-2026-07-11.2 / taxonomy-2026-07-11.3Fixed USD peg. The source lists a USD reference with a fiat-backed mechanism.
Missing inputs
- Issuer reserve composition and bank balances
- Holder-specific redemption eligibility, timing, and limits
- Enough token-unit history for a historical percentile